RBI panel’s November 3 meet to decide on ‘inflation letter’ – Times of India

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) will meet on November 3 to decide on the contents of a letter to be sent to the government following its failure to keep inflation below the tolerance band of 6% for three consecutive quarters since January 2022.
Announcing an out-of-turn meeting of the MPC, the central bank said it was called under the “provision of 45ZN of the RBI Act’’. This section pertains to steps to be taken when the RBI fails to meet the inflation target. However, with the meeting scheduled a day after the US Fed meets to possibly announce another rate hike, there are fears of MPC also taking a rate call.
The RBI has been assigned an inflation target of 4% and a tolerance band of 2% above or below this number. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has said bringing inflation within target would be a two-year task.

The MPC is in unchartered territory as this is the first time since the new monetary framework came into place in 2016 that the panel has failed to keep inflation within 6%. While the reasons for inflation breaching the target have already been explained by the central bank in its MPC pronouncements, the uncertainty is on the next course of action. It will also be the first time that the RBI will be writing to the government explaining the reasons why average inflation has not been within the 2-6% band for three straight quarters.
Earlier, officials had told TOI that the letter from the RBI will be confidential and it will be for the government to decide if it wants to make the contents public. They had said that based on the communication, the finance ministry will decide if other steps are needed, although the central bank and the government have taken a raft of measures to calm price pressures.
Analysts say it is unlikely that the government will hold the MPC accountable as the central bank and the government have been working together to combat the challenges arising out of the pandemic on the financial system, introducing a huge amount of liquidity to ensure financial markets didn’t freeze.
The meeting was on the cards as the inflation numbers for September, released earlier this month, confirmed unanimous projections that inflation for the second quarter of FY23 would breach the target. However, the fact that the date chosen is exactly a day after the US Fed open market committee meeting has caused consternation among market participants.
Also, the RBI announcement came hours after the European Central Bank announced a 75-basis-point (100bps = 1 percentage point) increase in interest rates. The ECB has raised rates for the 19-country euro by two percentage points in three months.
There have also been rumours in money markets about the financial stability division in the finance ministry calling for a meeting, which has created a buzz over possible policy action to prevent spillover impact of global rate hikes

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