Covid-19 peak over; can be controlled by Feb-2021: Govt panel – Times of India

HYDERABAD: Covid-19 pandemic can be controlled with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end, 2021 if all safety protocols are followed, found the Covid-19 India national supermodel committee, constituted by the department of science and technology, government of India in June this year.

The committee, headed by Prof M Vidyasagar, professor, Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad (IIT-H) was constituted to evolve a national supermodel for Covid-19 progression in order to help the government make short term and medium term plans and decisions.

As part of its study titled ‘progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: prognosis and lockdown impact’ published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research, the committee had to quantify the effects of lockdown, impact of migrants returning home on spread of the infection and economic optimization.

The committee concluded that India has already past Covid-19 peak in mid-September and will record minimal active symptomatic infections by early next year if safety protocols are followed. “If there was no lockdown, we would have had a peak that was 15 times higher in the middle of June, which would have been overwhelming for ability to cope. By enforcing the lockdown in March, we not only reduced the load on our system but also pushed the peak to September from the projected May-end,” said Vidyasagar, professor, IIT-Hyderabad, adding that with no lockdown, the pandemic would led to a peak load of 140+ lakh cases by June.

Although the committee predicts that the ensuing festival and winter seasons may increase the susceptibility to infection, district and higher level lockdowns were not recommended any further. “Relaxation in protective measures can lead to a significant rise of up to 26 lakh infections within a month. Existing personal safety protocols need to continue in full measure. Otherwise we will see a sharp rise in infections,” said Vidyasagar.

The committee will continue to work on many other issues concerning the current pandemic forecasting, as well as continue to develop robust models for the future pandemics if any so that the decision-making processes are fast tracked when the need arises without a lag time.